{"topic_id":"RASFF_petfood_risk_severity_by_year","category":"rasff","context":"---\ntopic_id: RASFF_petfood_risk_severity_by_year\ncategory: rasff\ntitle: RASFF pet food risk severity (serious+potentially serious share) 2019–2026 (peak 47.2% in 2023)\nlang: en\nsource: rasff-petfood-20260719.json\ndate_parsed: 2026-07-20\ntokens_estimated: 480\n---\n\nRisk severity breakdown of RASFF pet food notifications (2019–2026),\nusing the `riskDecision.description` field across the 255-record\ndataset. Year extracted from `ecValidationDate` (DD-MM-YYYY,\nsubstring index [6:10]).\n\n| Year | serious | potentially serious | not serious | potential risk | undecided | no risk | Total | Serious+PotentiallySerious % |\n|------|---------|---------------------|-------------|----------------|-----------|---------|-------|------------------------------|\n| 2019 | 2       | 0                   | 3           | 0              | 0         | 0       | 5     | 40.0%                        |\n| 2020 | 10      | 0                   | 9           | 0              | 7         | 1       | 27    | 37.0%                        |\n| 2021 | 10      | 0                   | 17          | 0              | 3         | 1       | 31    | 32.3%                        |\n| 2022 | 15      | 0                   | 19          | 0              | 6         | 5       | 45    | 33.3%                        |\n| 2023 | 12      | 5                   | 8           | 10             | 1         | 0       | 36    | 47.2% ← peak                 |\n| 2024 | 10      | 8                   | 15          | 13             | 0         | 0       | 46    | 39.1%                        |\n| 2025 | 5       | 8                   | 14          | 13             | 0         | 0       | 40    | 32.5%                        |\n| 2026 | 3       | 1                   | 10          | 11             | 0         | 0       | 25    | 16.0% (YTD through 07-08)    |\n\nKey inflection points:\n\n- **2023 peak at 47.2%** — coincides with the first appearance of two\n  new risk categories (`potentially serious` and `potential risk`)\n  which together account for 15/36 of 2023 decisions. The `undecided`\n  category drops from 6 (2022) → 1 (2023) and disappears from 2024\n  onward, suggesting RASFF tightened classification rules in 2023 to\n  reduce the deferred-decision backlog.\n- **2020 jump from 5 → 27** — matches the pet adoption surge during\n  COVID lockdowns and EU Reg 2019/626 microbiological criteria\n  tightening (Reg 2019/626 entered application 2021-03-21; sentinel\n  data appeared in 2020).\n- **2026 partial at 16.0%** — only 25 records YTD through 2026-07-08;\n  the dataset's latest record is `notifId 856360` (reference 2026.6038,\n  validated 2026-07-08). Second-half severity may converge toward\n  30-40% based on historical seasonality; treat as provisional.\n\nThe \"potential risk\" category — distinct from \"potentially serious\" —\nappears only from 2023 onward (10 records in 2023, 13 in 2024, 13 in\n2025, 11 in 2026). Its introduction post-dates the 2023 category\nrevision and indicates a tier reserved for hazards with\nuncertain-but-plausible adverse health effects pending further\ninvestigation.\n\nSource: `rasff-petfood-20260719.json` (255 records) → year from\n`ecValidationDate`; severity from `riskDecision.description`.","sources":[],"tokens_estimated":480,"generated_at":null,"tip":"Use /api/v1/topics to discover more topics. /api/v1/nutrient for precise single-point queries. /api/v1/cross_compare for 2-3 standard comparisons."}